One question for each 2026 World Cup team. Can Iraq throw a wrench into the Group of Death?
Would you love me in a Bentley? Would you love me on a $95 bus from downtown Boston to Gillette Stadium? Footnote is asking 48 questions, and they’re all about the 48 teams at the 2026 World Cup. This post is part of our Group I preview. You can also read previews of France, Senegal, and Norway.
Can Iraq throw a wrench into the Group of Death?
There are two prevailing schools of thought about the so-called “Group of Death” at the 2026 World Cup, the group that combines so many good teams that one will be sent home early.
One is that there is no such thing as a Group of Death in a 48-team tournament where third-place teams advance. The second is that if there is such a thing as the 2026 Group of Death, it’s Group I.
And Group I’s case for being the toughest group in the tournament is strong: A stacked French team that has largely been almost unbeatable in major tournaments for the past decade, a Senegal team fresh off winning a second AFCON this decade,1Subject to judicial review. and a Norway team that is loaded with some of the best talent in Europe. And also Iraq.
People generally assume that Group I will be a knife fight between those three teams as they try to secure the top two slots in the group that would guarantee a spot in the round of 16. In this formulation, Iraq are there to enjoy the ride and not get too depressed as Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé make their plays for the Golden Boot.
But what if Iraq are good enough to at least present a stumbling block for the other three teams?
It’s a long shot. Based on the available metrics, Iraq are a long way behind the rest of the group. They are ranked 63 in the ELO ratings. The team ranked closest to them in their group are Senegal, and they are 20. France is ranked third.
Iraq were competent, but not great, in World Cup qualifying. They finished just behind Jordan in their main qualifying tournament before finishing just behind Saudi Arabia in a round-robin Asian continental playoff and eventually punching their ticket to the tournament via a narrow intercontinental playoff win over Bolivia. This is a team that has mostly made it here by beating the beatable teams and avoiding heavy losses against better opposition.
If there’s a case for optimism, it will likely come from the midfield, which is built from rising young players who are making their way in competitive global leagues. In that playoff victory against Bolivia, Iraq started four midfielders in their early 20s who all play at a decent level outside of Iraq: Zidane Iqbal of Utrecht in the Netherlands, Aimar Sher of Sarpsborg in Norway, Marko Farji of Venezia in Italy, and Ahmed Qasem of Nashville SC in the United States.
This is a solid group in the middle of the park who will bring technical skill and energy to the midfield battle across three World Cup games. If they are able to work as a unit against the ball they can at least prevent opposing teams from advancing the ball easily into their attacking third, which is frequently a good first step to staying in a game long enough to pull an upset.
Up front, Iraq will likely start a partnership of Ali Yousif, who scored the goal that took them to the World Cup, and Mohanad Ali, who is the number 10 and has maybe the best nickname in the tournament, going by simply Mimi.
It is unlikely that all of this adds up to wins against Senegal or Norway. But that’s not necessarily the bar for a successful World Cup: Iraq haven’t qualified for the tournament since 1986, and in the intervening four decades just about every horrific thing that can happen to a country has happened there. Iraq has been through a dictatorship and a horrifically deadly American invasion, and a terribly mismanaged stabilization campaign in the wake of that invasion, and a wave of terrorism that emerged from that mismanaged stabilization campaign.
Like Bosnia, this is a team composed of people who have survived wars and people who are choosing to represent the nation of their parents after their families fled wars and raised them abroad. Just returning to the world stage is a remarkable achievement, and a real moment to celebrate.
By way of celebration, Iraq will have three incredibly difficult matches on the biggest stage in sports. If they can steal a result in any of those games, they will upend the “Group of Death,” and create a truly iconic World Cup moment.
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