One question for each 2026 World Cup team. Can Panama beat a good team that is not the United States?
Would you love me in a Bentley? Would you love me on a $95 bus from downtown Boston to Gillette Stadium? Footnote is asking 48 questions, and they’re all about the 48 teams at the 2026 World Cup. This post is part of our Group L preview. You can also read previews of England, Ghana, and Croatia.
Can Panama beat a good team that is not the United States?
Someone in Panama City must have gotten their hands on a One-Wish Willow sometime in 2015.1This is a reference to the 2026 film Obsession, but if you haven’t seen that movie, replace it with “monkey’s paw.” In 2013, Panama were all set to qualify for their first ever-World Cup. All they had to do to guarantee a shot at the intercontinental playoffs was beat the United States at home, and the Americans had already booked their spot in Brazil.
But Panama lost, for no reason other than a few guys who didn’t get to play that much in qualifying for the USMNT really wanted to score some goals. And in the wake of that, someone in Panama must have made a wish: “I wish we could beat the United States and go to the World Cup!”
Wish granted. With some caveats.
In 2018, Panama qualified for that historic World Cup. They didn’t manage any points, but just getting to the tournament was a huge accomplishment.
And then in the 2020s, they started beating the United States: A home victory in 2022 World Cup qualifying, a shootout win in the 2023 Gold Cup semifinals, a massive victory in the 2024 Copa America group stage, and a smash-and-grab win in the 2025 Nations League.
And yet each of those wins was almost immediately followed by a loss in their next big challenge: A 1-4 World Cup qualifying defeat to Canada in Toronto, losses to Mexico in both the regional finals that they made, and a 5-0 dismissal by Colombia in the Copa America.
They can qualify for the World Cup. And they can beat the United States. But can Panama beat anyone else?
The 2026 World Cup will be their biggest test to date, but also their biggest opportunity: Three matches against three teams that are full of real quality players. For Panama to get their first World Cup points, the formula that has frustrated the State this decade will have to finally work against someone else.
That will require the entire back five playing at their frustrating best. Head coach Thomas Christiansen almost always plays a 5-4-1, with a core of three centerbacks anchored by Edgardo Fariña. That setup allows the team to frustrate opposing teams, and also set up space for their two best players — the wingbacks César Blackman and Amir Murillo — to sprint forward when they do win the ball.
Defending is great, but Panama will also need to get the ball forward, and the biggest question about their ability to do that will be the health of Dalberto Carrasquilla. The central midfielder, nicknamed “Coco,” was one of the best players in Mexico last season, an all over-the-field player who is capable of both playmaking and defensive irritation. Carrasquilla was injured in the Liga MX finale in late May, but he is reportedly getting back to fitness in time to potentially play in Panama’s opener or potentially the second match.
Panama’s performances over the past five years against the United States demonstrate an ability to steal a result against a team that is expected to beat them on paper. And although they have struggled to apply that formula to other matches, the formula is there and the players know how to follow it.
They just need to break whatever curse got them into this position in the first place.
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